In soccer, everyone loves a good surprise. One of the best things in the sport is when the underdog— the team no one expected—comes out on top. These games are called upsets, and if you’re betting on soccer, they can also lead to huge payouts. But how do you spot a real upset before it happens?
Believe it or not, it’s not all guesswork. With the right info and a little help from stats, you can actually predict when an underdog might win. This guide will show you how to do that in a way that’s easy to understand—even if you’re just starting out.
What Is a Soccer Underdog?
Let’s start with the basics. In any match, one team is expected to win. This team is called the favorite. The other team, the one that’s not expected to win, is the underdog.
Bookmakers give higher odds to underdogs. That means if you bet on them and they win, you make a lot more money. But of course, it’s riskier.
Here’s an example:
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Manchester City (Favorite): 1.30 odds
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Brentford (Underdog): 9.50 odds
If Brentford wins, and you bet $10, you’d get $95 back. Not bad, right?
But how often do these upsets actually happen?
One-Time Soccer Stats of the Day
Fun Fact: In the 2022/2023 Premier League season, underdogs won 26% of the games. That means 1 out of every 4 matches ended in an upset!
That may not sound like a lot, but if you pick your games wisely, it could lead to some exciting wins with soccer stats.
Why Do Upsets Happen in Soccer?
Soccer is full of surprises. Even the best teams have bad days, and the worst teams can pull off something amazing. Upsets can happen because:
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The favorite team is too confident and doesn’t play hard enough.
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The underdog has a strong defense and catches the favorite off guard.
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A star player is missing.
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The weather or field conditions are unusual.
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The game doesn’t matter much to the favorite (like in late-season matches).
By keeping an eye on these things, you can start spotting the signs of a potential upset.
How to Spot an Underdog Worth Betting On
So, how do you know when an underdog has a chance? Here are some tips:
1. Look at Recent Form
Has the underdog been playing well lately? Maybe they’ve won their last two matches or held strong against better teams. Even if they didn’t win, strong performances can be a clue.
2. Check the Motivation
Some teams fight harder when they’re trying to avoid relegation or qualify for a tournament. If the underdog needs to win, that could give them the edge.
3. Missing Players
Is the favorite missing key players? Injuries, suspensions, or resting players before a big match can change everything.
4. Home Advantage
Even small teams play better at home. The crowd, the stadium, the comfort — it all adds up.
5. Weather and Pitch Conditions
Rain, snow, or a rough field can slow down fast, fancy teams and help defensive ones. Underdogs often thrive in messy conditions.
Real-Life Underdog Story: Leicester City
No article about underdogs would be complete without this one:
In 2015, Leicester City was expected to get relegated. The odds of them winning the Premier League were 5000 to 1. But they shocked the world and became champions.
Anyone who placed even a small bet on them made a fortune. That’s the power of believing in the right underdog at the right time.
Banker of the Day (AI-Assisted Prediction)
Now let’s share today’s top bet based on recent stats:
Match: Freiburg vs. Union Berlin
Tip: Under 2.5 Goals
Reason: Both teams average fewer than 1.3 goals per game over their last 5 matches. AI analysis says there’s a 76% chance of fewer than 3 goals being scored.
This may not be a match with a big underdog win, but it’s a smart and safe bet based on real stats. That’s why it’s the “Banker of the Day.”
Common Mistakes When Betting on Underdogs
It’s exciting to back an underdog, but there are a few traps to avoid:
Betting Just Because the Odds Are High
Don’t just chase big winnings. Only bet when you see a real chance of an upset.
Ignoring Team News
Always check for injuries, suspensions, or changes to the starting lineup. One missing player can make a huge difference.
Forgetting About Fatigue
If a team played just a few days ago, they might be tired. A fresher underdog has a better shot.
Use Stats to Make Smarter Choices
Advanced statistics help you look deeper than just wins and losses. Here are a few that matter:
📊 xG (Expected Goals)
This tells you how many goals a team should have scored based on their chances. If a team has high xG but keeps losing, they might be ready for a surprise win.
📉 Possession Stats
Some teams win with less possession by defending well and scoring on the counterattack.
📈 Shots on Target
Look for underdogs that create chances and force saves. That shows they’re dangerous, even if they haven’t been winning.
Top 5 Leagues for Surprise Wins
Some leagues are more likely to have upsets than others. Keep an eye on:
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English Championship – Tight games, anyone can win.
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Serie B (Italy) – Low-scoring matches make surprises common.
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La Liga 2 (Spain) – Home advantage is huge here.
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Ligue 1 (France) – Smaller teams often surprise big ones.
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Major League Soccer (USA) – Very unpredictable!
Should You Always Bet on Underdogs?
Nope. Betting is about balance. Sure, underdogs can give you big wins, but they lose more often. Mixing smart underdog bets with safe favorites is usually the best approach.
Think of betting like fishing. Favorites are the small fish—easy to catch but not that exciting. Underdogs are the big ones—you’ll need skill and patience, but the reward is awesome.
Trust the Signs, Not Just Your Gut
Spotting the right soccer underdog is a mix of research, pattern-watching, and a little bit of bravery. Don’t bet just for fun—look at the facts, check the stats, and be smart about it.
With the right tools (like AI and stats websites) and a little practice, you’ll be able to spot upsets before they happen—and maybe make some winning bets too.
Remember: Don’t bet with your heart, bet with your head. And always bet responsibly!
